John B. S. Haldane:
“Theories have four stages of acceptance:
i) this is worthless nonsense;
ii) this is an interesting, but perverse, point of view;
iii) this is true, but quite unimportant;
iv) I always said so.”
Area of concentration: Asset pricing, applied theoretical and empirical, in connection with macroeconomics, corporate finance, labor economics, computational economics, accounting, and meta-science
Replicating anomalies (Hou, Xue, and Zhang 2017). Keynote speech prepared for the Autumn 2017 Inquire Europe Symposium on “Advances in factor investing” | Finalist, the 2017 Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Competition | Kicking the tires of market anomalies, by James Mackintosh, The Wall Street Journal, Business & Finance B1-B2, May 12, 2017, pdf | When researchers and investors walk into a bar, the investors get hammered, by Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal, May 12, 2017, pdf | An algorithm, an ETF and an academic study walk into a bar, by James Mackintosh, The Wall Street Journal, May 11, 2017, pdf | A new paper just took a huge shot at some of the world’s hottest investments, by Eric Weiner, Bloomberg, May 8, 2017
Factor investing: An academic perspective, featured speech at the 2017 Best of BlackRock: Global Outlook Symposium
Essays on the cross-section of returns, 2002, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
The investment CAPM provides an economic foundation for Graham and Dodd’s (1934) Security Analysis, without mispricing.
Market economies are intrinsically unstable.
Hou, Kewei, Chen Xue, and Lu Zhang, 2017, Replicating anomalies. Slides | Finalist, the 2017 Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Competition | Keynote speech at the Autumn 2017 Inquire Europe Symposium on “Advances in factor investing” | Presentations at the 2017 University of British Columbia Summer Finance Conference, the 2017 Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Competition, and the 2017 Hedge Fund Symposium organized by Institute for Private Capital | WSJ: An algorithm, an ETF and an academic study walk into a bar | WSJ: When researchers and investors walk into a bar, the investors get hammered | Bloomberg: A new paper just took a huge shot at some of the world’s hottest investments
The anomalies literature is infested with widespread p-hacking.
Bai, Hang, Kewei Hou, Howard Kung, Erica X. N. Li, and Lu Zhang, 2016, The CAPM strikes back? An investment model with disasters. Slides
An investment model with rare disasters reproduces the failure of the CAPM in explaining the value premium in finite samples in which disasters are not materialized, as well as its relative success in samples in which disasters are materialized.
A search and matching model with credible bargaining, when calibrated to the mean and volatility of unemployment in the postwar sample, can potentially explain the unemployment crisis in the Great Depression.
Hou, Kewei, Chen Xue, and Lu Zhang, 2014, A comparison of new factor models. NBER working paper 20682, permanent working paper. Second Prize, the 2015 Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Competition
The Fama-French five-factor model is largely a noisy version of the q-factor model.
Zhang, Lu, 2005, Anomalies, NBER working paper 11322, permanent working paper. Runner-up, Best Paper Award at the 2005 Utah Winter Finance Conference
An economic explanation for why investment and profitability play a fundamental role in the cross section of expected stock returns.
[All articles are the sole copyright of the respective publishers. Materials are provided for educational use only]
2016 Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas, and Lu Zhang, Solving the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model accurately, forthcoming, Quantitative Economics.
2015 Hou, Kewei, Chen Xue, and Lu Zhang, Digesting anomalies: An investment approach, Review of Financial Studies, 28 (3), 650-705. Editor’s Choice, lead article | Internet appendix | Lecture notes | Oxford University Press blog: A new benchmark for estimating expected stock returns | ETF.com blog: Passive investing’s foundations | Most cited RFS paper published in 2015
2014 Tang, Yue, Jin (Ginger) Wu, and Lu Zhang, Do anomalies exist ex ante?, Review of Finance 18 (3), 843-875, lead article.
2011 Gulen, Huseyin, Yuhang Xing, and Lu Zhang, Value versus growth: Time-varying expected stock returns, Financial Management 40 (2), 381-407.
2011 Chen, Long, and Lu Zhang, Do time-varying risk premiums explain labor market performance?, Journal of Financial Economics 99 (2), 385-399.
2010 Li, Dongmei, and Lu Zhang, Does q-theory with investment frictions explain anomalies in the cross-section of returns?, Journal of Financial Economics 98 (2), 297-314. Lecture notes
2010 Wu, Jin (Ginger), Lu Zhang, and X. Frank Zhang, The q-theory approach to understanding the accrual anomaly, Journal of Accounting Research 48 (1), 177-223.
2009 Liu, Laura Xiaolei, Toni M. Whited, and Lu Zhang, Investment-based expected stock returns, Journal of Political Economy 117 (6), 1105-1139. Internet appendix | Gauss programs and data | Matlab programs and data | Lecture notes
2008 Liu, Laura Xiaolei, and Lu Zhang Momentum profits, factor pricing, and macroeconomic risk, Review of Financial Studies, 21 (6), 2417-2448.
2008 Lyandres, Evgeny, Le Sun, and Lu Zhang, The new issues puzzle: Testing the investment-based explanation, Review of Financial Studies 21 (6), 2825-2855. Runner-up, Barclays Global Investors Award for the Best Conference Paper at the 2005 European Finance Association Annual Meetings.
Zhang, Lu, 2014, Exploring asset pricing anomalies, NBER Reporter 1, 17-19.